11| The DisRev Podcast is here!
What’s economic stall speed?
The podcast is here! I’m really proud of the work we’ve put in to get this next phase of DisRev launched. This work can’t happen without you. It’s one of many steps we’ll take on this journey to build community, meet people where they are, and assist in the fight of our lifetimes. Some of you are here for our written work (essays, guides, analysis); some of you will love the podcast (video and audio) as it brings in a new cohort of subscribers. Every piece of the puzzle will help grow this project, making us stronger and better equipped to change the world. Thank you for coming along for the ride. It means everything to me. - Stacey
3 Big Things
1️⃣ Podcast info 🎧🎙
The latest DisRev chapter
In a rare break, this ‘Big Thing’ is internal. Our podcast is published. Here’s where to to find and follow!
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2️⃣ -3% 📉🎢
Let’s talk about economic stall speed
The U.S. economy shrank -0.3% in Q1 this year, the first drop since the end of the pandemic. But the figure doesn’t give a clear picture.
To start, this data point looks backward in time. Trump’s tariff chaos didn’t begin until after the end of Q1, meaning things might be a lot worse than this number shows. Secondly, there was a 41% jump in imports as people and businesses prepared for said tariffs. Imports push down GDP (and exports push it up), meaning things might not be as bad as this number suggests.
But the real question is, how long can this uncertainty continue? Stall speed is when an aircraft’s wings don’t have enough lift to keep the plane aloft. Economic stall speed is when the economy doesn’t have enough growth (speed) to maintain fundamental economic activity (lift), and so the economy stalls and potentially crashes. Those fundamentals include consumers spending less money and businesses pausing investment and hiring as recession fears worsen.
Most economists put U.S. economic stall speed at 1% growth. For context, healthy economic growth sits between 2-3%. The U.S. had seen consistent 2+% growth since the end of the pandemic under Biden. Now, we could already be in a recession.
3️⃣ Christmas shopping in May? 🎅🎄
And back-to-school sales fears before school is out
The disruption and uncertainty are leading to real business fears. Retailers are warning that store shelves might be emptier once back-to-school shopping begins and the holidays hit. And they won’t be empty because of demand. Items will likely be more expensive due to tariffs and shortages, and stores won’t be as stocked with goods. Preparation for these peak sales seasons happens months ahead of time as things work through the supply chain. Every year, Christmas success is made in the heat of summer.
Trump’s response to all this? A variation of “let them eat cake.” The Trump administration clearly doesn’t understand working-class Americans, but even if they did, it wouldn’t matter much because ultimately, they don’t care about them.
“Well, maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls. So maybe the two dolls will cost a couple bucks more than they would normally.” — Pres. Trump
Featured this week: Episode 1
How some Democratic consultants are standing in the way of victory. And... is Texas winnable? w/ Guest Chuck Rocha
Here’s a preview.
Editor’s Note:
I’m really excited about what’s happening here at DisRev. I’m a firm believer in creating media that’s community-focused and brings folks in to build abundance and family. We have big dreams, and this podcast is one step in the direction of those dreams. Yours in Revolution –Álio
“Don't overglorify power to underestimate your own power.” - Chuck Rocha