10 Terrifying Economic Numbers
The U.S. economy is built by everyday Americans, and they can’t hold it up anymore.
The economy is approaching a tipping point not seen in our lifetimes. The MAGA remaking of the current post-WWII global economy into something closer to a 19th-century patronage system is beginning to take shape: tariffs, trade wars, geopolitical upheaval, digital wars, and the growing risk of a shooting war.
That chaos and uncertainty mean things are going to break. Their callousness and disregard for working people mean relief is not going to come in time for the hundreds of millions of people that make this world function.
The past two weeks of volatility on Wall Street show that investors and business leaders have soured—or woken up to—the reality of Trump’s economic incompetence.
Yes, he really wasn’t bluffing.
Yes, we really did warn you.
On Friday, the Dow dropped more than 700 points (-1.7%), the Nasdaq slumped 2.7%, and the S&P 500 dropped nearly 2%. The losses put the Nasdaq and S&P into correction— meaning they’ve lost 10% since their recent peak. And many are speculating that a bear market is next (a loss of 20%).
It’s important to note the stock market is not the economy. Most people around the world do not own stock and don’t pay attention to the whims of Wall Street. That said, many work-class families do have pensions and retirement accounts tied to stocks and bonds—their futures and financial stability rely on it. Meanwhile, some upset Wall Street does on occasion betray bigger problems.
Let’s look at some numbers that are the economy and do directly involve middle- and working-class people. These data points illustrate just how important the average person is to the U.S. economy and how increased financial strain along with disastrous forecasts means they won’t be able to hold up the Post-Pandemic Economy any longer—putting us on a path towards recession.
10 Big Things:
1️⃣ 70-75% 🦄🛍️
That’s roughly how much of U.S. GDP is consumer spending. This country’s economy runs on everyday Americans being able to not just afford life but have enough to spend a little extra each month. Moreover, our economy functions on consumers feeling ok about spending. Industries collapse when consumers decide not to spend or cannot afford certain goods—think millennials and diamonds. The U.S. economy crashes when consumers can’t prop it up.
2️⃣ $18 Trillion 🏦💳
That’s about how much personal debt exists in the U.S. economy—an all-time high. This includes credit cards, student loans, mortgages, etc. Consumers are willing to go into debt for their personal pleasures (see Beyonce and Taylor Swift tours), personal pursuits and hobbies, and etcetera, so long as their future personal financial outlook appears predictable and healthy. From a macro standpoint, this means wage growth, a strong job market, and a sense that inflation is falling and prices are stabilizing. It’s ok to put that concert vacation on credit if you feel it can reasonably be paid off in the near term.
3️⃣ 42 Million 🎓💰
That’s how many people owe a combined total of nearly $1.6 trillion in student loans—second only to mortgage debt. Of those, 10 million people are past due on student loan payments, according to the New York Fed, meaning delinquency rates are far higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Much of this has to do with COVID relief pauses on loans that ended last September. What is more troubling, however, are two Trump executive orders. One restricts a program that forgives debt for people who’ve worked in public or nonprofit jobs for ten years; the second blocks access to affordable, income-driven repayment plans for a month. All this spells trouble for the millions of people already struggling with student loan payments who will see hits to their credit score and decreased access to money. This is not just bad for their personal finances but for the whole economy. Remember what I said about consumer spending; if people have to (or even feel like they need to) spend less, that will push us towards a recession. Furthermore, the long-term damage will hurt their ability to build wealth; that will drag on the economy for decades to come when they can’t afford homes, cars, or other life essentials down the road.
After delinquency comes default, which can include garnished wages. Before the pandemic, one million people would default on student loans every year; now some believe that could jump as high as 5 million.
4️⃣ 16% Repo 🚗🔒
Speaking of cars, that’s the percent increase of vehicle repossessions in 2024 from the year before (and up 43% from 2022). That accounts for 1.73 million cars taken. It’s the highest rate since 2009, mid-Great Recession.
5️⃣ 1 in 13 🚚🏡
That’s how many Americans moved in 2023. That’s down dramatically from 1 in 5 in the 1960s (and 1 in 3 in the 19th century). Upward mobility is tied to regular mobility. People’s ability to send their kids to the better school, take the better job, build the better life most often depends on being able to move. But the affordability crisis in housing and beyond has left people stuck. That type of temporary financial burden quickly becomes generational financial burden and drags down whole communities.
6️⃣ 4.9% 📈💸
That’s the one-year outlook for inflation, the worst since Nov. 2022. For context, core inflation increased to 2.8% for February. It’s going in the wrong direction, and remember, tariffs cause inflation.
7️⃣ -28.2%. 📉😳
That’s the one-year drop in consumer sentiment from this time 12 months ago, according to the University of Michigan’s closely watched survey, which has now slumped three months running. January saw a slip that many hoped was just post-holiday malaise. Then February saw a near 10% drop and another 11.9% plummet in March.
Concerns were driven by (pull out your Bingo Cards, please) returning inflation, fears of recession, uncertainty, tariffs, and all that personal debt.
Most importantly, the sentiment was seen across age, wealth, income, and political affiliation. This is notable because recent surveys demonstrated a strong correlation between economic outlook and party affiliation, where Democrats or Republicans would see a favorable forecast if their party was in power—regardless of economic facts or even personal microeconomic reality. This historically has not been the case in the U.S., but recent polarization and media silos have warped people’s sense of reality, including macroeconomic reality. The fact economic fears and hardship are beginning to break through our current era of cognitive dissonance is an indicator of something: shit is getting real.
8️⃣ 12-year low 🗓️😔
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index, another independent measure of how people are feeling, echoes the University of Michigan. It’s dropped four months in a row, including a precipitous 7-point collapse in February, the biggest drop since August 2021—think Delta Variant Pandemic Era. It then dropped another 7 points in March. That came with a 12-year low for short-term expectations on income, business, and the labor market (jobs)—think mid-Great Recession recovery.
9️⃣ 80 points 🚨😥
That’s the Conference Board’s signal threshold for a potential recession based on those short-term expectations. We’re at 65.2.
🔟 -2.4% 📉💲
That’s how much the Atlanta Fed is predicting the economy will drop in the first quarter of this year. For context: U.S. GDP fell by 4.3 percent from “peak to trough” in the first years of the Great Recession (Dec. 2007-June 2009).
All of these stats are meant to illustrate two realities:
First, the U.S. economy is built on American workers, but it has not been built for them in quite some time. Progressives warned about income and wealth inequality for decades. Drastic improvements were needed for the country’s long-term economic and political health—bold moves away from neoliberal policies that had left workers frustrated for decades.
Second, a breaking point has arrived. With all the ineptitude of this administration and its disregard for the working class, regular people won’t be able to scaffold the economy anymore. Moreover, the uncertainty and chaos is both a function of the Trump Administration’s incompetence and a feature of their intent—they both don’t care if they break things by accident and they also hope things will break. Financial desperation is a tool used by authoritarians to build distrust in democratic institutions, foment anger, and further seize power.